Crash odds for Solana memecoins
Will it hold for the next hour?
HodlOdds estimates the chance that a pump.fun-graduated Solana memecoin falls 90% or more within the next 60 minutes. Agents and traders pay per answer over x402. No account, no subscription.
Status: the API and its documentation are public. Paid answers open after the pre-registered forward-test decision on October 20, 2026.
- 0.21%
- 3.4%
- 12%
- 31%
How to read the number
0.04 means about 4 in 100 tokens like this one lose 90% or more of their price within the next 60 minutes. Higher means riskier, but a low number does not mean safe: smaller or slower drops are not counted, and the odds change minute by minute.
What counts as a crash
A completed one-minute close, priced in SOL, at least 90% below the reference price within the 60 minutes after the score's time.
What it does not measure
Smaller or slower drops, whether a token can be sold, or brief dips inside a minute. Losses can happen without warning.
Confidence
Every answer carries high, medium or low confidence: how closely past predictions in that range matched what happened. It is not a guarantee for one token.
Fresh every minute
Scores are recomputed every 60 seconds, about 20 seconds after each minute closes. Each score covers the 60 minutes after its as_of time and is valid only until the next update; the odds for the same token can rise sharply from one minute to the next. Request a fresh score right before every decision.
Pay per answer
| Route | Price | What you get |
|---|---|---|
GET /v1/risk/{mint} | $0.01 | One token's 60-minute crash odds |
GET /v1/board | $0.005 / coin | 10–500 covered tokens, ranked and filtered; pay only for coins returned |
GET /v1/risk/{mint}/last | $0.002 | Last known odds, at most 30 minutes old, clearly labelled |
GET /v1/status, /v1/meta, /v1/coverage/{mint} | free | Feed state, model card, prices, coverage |
Paid in USDC on Solana or Base with x402 v2. Stale data, an uncovered token or an empty board is refused or returned free: nothing is charged. Coverage: SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates.
For developers and agents
Python SDK
pip install hodlodds
hodlodds status
hodlodds risk <MINT> --network solana \
--pay-to <RECIPIENT FROM /v1/meta> \
--keypair ~/.config/hodlodds/payer.jsonThe client signs locally, checks every offer against your limits and never retries a payment. Your key never leaves your machine.
Docs
- API documentation
- llms.txt — how agents should read and explain a score
- OpenAPI 3.1
- hodlodds on PyPI
- Live feed status
A record anyone can check
Every prediction we serve is written to a per-minute hash chain, time-stamped by an RFC 3161 authority every five minutes and anchored to Bitcoin daily. Each hour is revealed after a delay, so anyone can check that what we published is exactly what we served. Daily accuracy reports start after launch.